Mike Vrabel will need to utilize his defensive knowledge to help fix a unit near the bottom of the page in almost every stat in 2020.
The NFL season doesn’t always pan out exactly the way most people think it will. There are teams that will be a pleasant surprise for fans, and there will inevitably be teams that will disappoint.
I’m of the belief that the Tennessee Titans will be part of the latter group.
After finishing 11-5 and winning the AFC South behind a 2,000 yard rushing performance by Derrick Henry, fans and oddsmakers have high expectations once again for the Titans heading into 2021.
Unless they fix some glaring weaknesses from last season, Tennessee could easily fail to meet them.
Derrick Henry is due for regression
Michael Fabiano of Sports Illustrated broke down what has happened to running backs the season after they rush for 2,000 yards. He found that their rushing yards regressed by no less than 562 yards in the season following their 2,000 yard campaign.
Henry led the NFL in rushing attempts the past two seasons, finishing with 378 rushes in 2020 and 303 in 2019. He finished last year with 66 more attempts than Dalvin Cook of the Minnesota Vikings, who ended up alone in second by a wide margin.
Even if Henry falls in the trend as the other 2,000 runners, a 500-yard yard regression would still have him at around 1,500 yards. Plus, throw in the extra 17th game this season, and I’m sure Henry will still be among the best backs in the league. Just don’t expect him to be quite the dominant force he was the past two years.
Julio Jones may not be the weapon you believe he is
One of the biggest moves of the offseason was when the Titans traded for former Atlanta Falcons wide receiver, Julio Jones.
While the Titans were immediately put in the conversation of having one of the best receiver duos in the NFL with the addition of Jones, you may want to pump the brakes on that take.
Yes, Jones is one of the all-time best, but he’s been banged up the past few seasons and has clearly lost a significant step with his burst off the line. His numbers have steadily declined since his stellar 2018 season where he averaged 104.8 yards per game. In 2020, that number dipped to 85.7 yards per game last season.
Julio also missed seven games due to injury last year, and it feels like he has been on the injury report as “questionable” almost every week the past five seasons.
Will he be a solid addition to the Titans receiving core? Absolutely, especially with Tennessee losing Corey Davis to the New York Jets, but the signs are there that he’ll likely be nothing more than an above-average NFL receiver in 2021.
The Titans’ defense was among the league’s worst in 2020
It’s pretty rare for a team to have as bad of a defense as the Titans had in 2020 and still manage to win 11 games.
They ranked 24th in opponent points per game (27) and 29th in opponent yards per game (398.4). Only the Houston Texans, New York Jets, and Detroit Lions allowed more yards per game than the Titans last year. That’s not good company to be in.
Not only that, they ranked near the bottom in other key defensive stats as well, including 30th in red zone defense and dead last in opponent third down conversion percentage (51.98%).
The Titans defense didn’t offer up much of a pass rush either last season; ranking 29th in sack percentage at 3.54.
While they did make a few moves this offseason to improve the defense, will it be enough?
I find it hard to imagine that the Titans find similar success in 2021 than they did last year. Defense can still win championships, and Tennessee’s is non-existent.
How do oddsmakers view the Titans’ chances?
WynnBET has several futures to wager on when it comes to the Titans this year.
They sit at +3000 to win the Super Bowl and they’re -150 favorites to win the AFC South division.
Since I expect to see some regression from the Titans this season, I’ll be looking at their win total prop and exact win total prop.
WynnBET has the Titans win total set at 9.5 wins, and I plan to take the under at odds of -110 (bet $110 to win $100).
When it comes to their exact win total, I think the best value on the board is for them to finish with eight wins; currently being offered at +500.
Finally, there are odds on whether or not the Titans will make the playoffs.
Titans fans will be happy to learn that oddsmakers don’t agree with my take about Tennessee, as WynnBET is favoring them to make the postseason at -180 odds, which is an implied probability of 55.56 percent.
I’m going to continue to fade the Titans on this prop as well, and take the “no” at +150.
– Iain MacMillan