How should you bet each NFL matchup in Week 5?
We hammered home the point last week that the over has been arguably the most profitable bet in the NFL this season. The trend continued in Week 4 when another 10 overs hit, making the over a whopping 37-26 on the season to date.
That 58.7 percent clip is a solid success rate and worth betting to continue as teams slowly adjust to contact football after a condensed offseason with no preseason games. The week’s spreads, courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook, also offer plenty of intrigue with a lot of large numbers to play in potentially lopsided matchups.
How should you attack each game? Read on to find out. This week’s byes include the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions. There are also COVID-related concerns surrounding the Tennessee Titans, New England Patriots and Las Vegas Raiders so make sure you are up to date with the latest news surrounding their games before placing any bets.
Thursday, October 8
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1) at Chicago Bears (3-1)
Line: Buccaneers -5.5
Over/Under Total: 44
The Buccaneers are favored coming into this game but the number seems a bit high considering the hobbled state of Tampa Bay’s offense. O.J. Howard was lost for the season with an Achilles’ injury while Chris Godwin is likely out for this contest and Mike Evans was clearly playing hurt in Tampa Bay’s win over the Chargers on Sunday.
Scotty Miller and Rob Gronkowski could be in line for more work against a Bears’ team that has played in a pair of low-scoring games at home with the combined totals reaching 30 points in each contest. This is also the rare 2020 game featuring two quality defenses so this could be a spot where the under makes sense.
Sunday, October 11
Arizona Cardinals (2-2) at New York Jets (0-4)
Line: Cardinals -7
Over/Under Total: 47
Arizona has lost two straight but gets a nice opportunity to right the ship against the NFL’s worst team. The Jets’ defense has been torched this season, surrendering 32.8 points per game, and it doesn’t have the personnel to keep a mobile quarterback like Kyler Murray in the pocket.
The potential return of Le’Veon Bell and Breshad Perriman could help New York but it would be offset if Sam Darnold has to miss the game with a shoulder injury. Joe Flacco would be next in line here and is a pure pocket passer, which could lead to some sack opportunities for Arizona’s defense.
The Jets are 0-4 against the spread this season and the number is a manageable touchdown so lay it with the Cardinals, who could also contribute a significant amount to the over on their own.
Carolina Panthers (2-2) at Atlanta Falcons (0-4)
Line: Falcons -2.5
Over/Under Total: 54.5
If you went into the season and told folks that this game would feature an 0-4 team against a 2-2 one most would assume the records would be flipped. That Atlanta is winless showcases how wacky their season has been despite an explosive offense while Carolina has played very hard in all four of their games.
The over should be very much in play here with a pair of tremendous offenses although Julio Jones may not play in this one after aggravating a hamstring injury in Green Bay on Monday night. The line is tight here but Carolina has a great chance to steal the game outright so getting points with them is nice.
Cincinnati Bengals (1-2-1) at Baltimore Ravens (3-1)
Line: Ravens -13.5
Over/Under Total: 51.5
Joe Burrow is on the board with an NFL win and certainly looks like the real deal over the Bengals’ first four games, which is certainly good news. There are issues with the rest of the team, however, including a defense that gives up over 150 yards per game on the ground.
That is a recipe for disaster against the Ravens, who should slice and dice them with Lamar Jackson dictating an extremely efficient offensive performance. This is the biggest number on the board this week but Baltimore is capable of covering it. The over could also be a good value if Cincinnati sneaks a few garbage-time touchdowns onto the board.
Jacksonville Jaguars (1-3) at Houston Texans (0-4)
Line: Texans -6
Over/Under Total: 54.5
Bill O’Brien was fired after Houston fell to 0-4 so it will be an interesting week for the Texans, who are six point favorites against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Watching Houston’s performance makes it hard to believe they deserve this level of respect, even at home, so taking the points with Jacksonville is smart here.
Both of these teams also feature lousy defenses who surrender at least 29 points per game. We saw with the Jets and Broncos last Thursday how bad defenses can elevate bad offenses, so grab that over here as quickly as possible.
Las Vegas Raiders (2-2) at Kansas City Chiefs (4-0)
Line: Chiefs -12.5
Over/Under Total: 56.5
The Chiefs are 4-0 for the fourth straight year, the first time in NFL history a team has accomplished that, but they did show some vulnerability against New England’s tough defense. Bill Belichick laid a blueprint for how to slow down the Chiefs by controlling the clock, but the Raiders simply don’t have the caliber of defense to present much of a challenge to Mahomes.
This will be a short week for Kansas City, who will win this game but could allow Las Vegas to squeak out a backdoor cover here. There is plenty of offensive firepower on both sides as well so the over, once again, makes sense as a tremendous bet.
Los Angeles Rams (3-1) at Washington Football Team (1-3)
Line: Rams -7.5
Over/Under Total: 45.5
The Rams didn’t deliver an effort that inspired a ton of confidence in Week 4, letting the Giants hang around for a long time before winning (and failing to cover the spread in the process). A trip east to take on the Washington Football Team has seen the oddsmakers adjust accordingly, setting the line at just 7.5 points.
This is a number the Rams should easily cover as Washington is struggling to compete while Dwayne Haskins is fighting for his job. Los Angeles can also light up the scoreboard on a suspect Washington defense but the over/under total is tricky since we don’t know how many points the Football Team will contribute on their own.
Philadelphia Eagles (1-2-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (3-0)
Line: Steelers -7.5
Over/Under Total: 44.5
Pittsburgh was off last week so we’ll focus on the Eagles, who picked up a much needed win in San Francisco. The game wasn’t exactly stellar for Philadelphia, which is dealing with a rash of injuries along the offensive line and at wide receiver, but Carson Wentz did just enough to sneak out a victory.
This matchup in Pittsburgh should play in favor of the Steelers, the superior defensive team that can take away what limited supporting cast that Wentz has. The Eagles’ defense has also played well so this could be a low scoring game. Watch the number closely since the Eagles could find a way to backdoor cover if the Steelers are laying the extra half point.
Buffalo Bills (4-0) at Tennessee Titans (3-0)
Line: Bills -8.5
Over/Under Total: N/A
This game is a bit of a mystery since we’re not sure exactly how the layoff from practice and missing players will impact Tennessee. The one line out as of post time has the Bills as an 8.5 point favorite, which seems way too high since the Titans haven’t lost too many key starters to date.
Getting that many points with a home team makes Tennessee a logical play with the spread, but keep an eye on this number. It could fluctuate rapidly over the course of the week.
Miami Dolphins (1-3) at San Francisco 49ers (2-2)
Line: 49ers -8.5
Over/Under Total: N/A
There isn’t an over/under total on the board yet due to the uncertain quarterback situation for the 49ers. Jimmy Garoppolo hasn’t played since Week 2 due to a high ankle sprain but his status will be determined by if he is able to practice this week.
Miami has its own quarterback questions but it looks like Ryan Fitzpatrick remains the starter for now. The potential for Fitzmagic to happen and the sluggish performance of San Francisco’s other quarterbacks makes it a smart choice to take the points with the Dolphins.
Denver Broncos (1-3) at New England Patriots (2-2)
Line: Patriots -11
Over/Under Total: N/A
Denver put up plenty of points against the Jets last week but they should have a significant defensive challenge ahead of them with New England, which managed to slow the Chiefs’ high-powered offense down on Monday night. It doesn’t look like Cam Newton will be cleared to return for this game so the Patriots will start either Brian Hoyer or Jarrett Stidham while relying heavily on the running game.
This number is high but Belichick’s defense can set up short fields by forcing turnovers so the odds of New England finding a way to cover are pretty good. If an over/under total comes out it will be pretty low given the state of quarterback play in this game so assess it through the sphere of a run-heavy game plan from both teams.
Indianapolis Colts (3-1) at Cleveland Browns (3-1)
Line: Colts -2.5
Over/Under Total: 47.5
The Colts have the NFL’s best defense statistically through four games although their competition hasn’t been the toughest to date. Cleveland enters this contest on a three-game winning streak but down Nick Chubb, who is out for several weeks after getting hurt in Dallas on Sunday.
These two teams both like to run the football so points could be at a premium in a game that could turn into a more defensive affair. The spread doesn’t really matter here since whoever wins will likely cover, but the money lines for both sides are very attractive with the Colts as a -148 favorite while Cleveland is a +126 underdog.
New York Giants (0-4) at Dallas Cowboys (1-3)
Line: Cowboys -9.5
Over/Under Total: 54
The Cowboys are one of the NFL’s biggest disappointments thanks to a comically bad defense and it has played a big role in their 1-3 start. The upshot is Dallas’ offense remains explosive enough to keep them in games, perhaps explaining why they are 9.5 point favorites against the winless Giants.
The number certainly seems like a stretch against a team that has been competitive in three of its four games. Daniel Jones is still a turnover machine but there’s enough talent here that a backdoor cover is a strong possiblity thanks to Dallas’ awful defense. Take the Giants with the points and hammer the over in a game that could become an exciting shootout.
Minnesota Vikings (1-3) at Seattle Seahawks (4-0)
Line: Seahawks -7
Over/Under Total: 57.5
Sunday night’s matchup features Minnesota heading to Seattle to try slowing down Russell Wilson and the Seahawks. The Vikings finally got in the win column against the Texans and will look to ride Dalvin Cook, who leads the league in rushing after four games, to try and keep Wilson off the field as often as possible.
That plan may not work well as Seattle features the league’s third stingiest run defense, allowing just under 76 yards a game over the first three month of the season, forcing Kirk Cousins to try and go score for score with Wilson. Both teams have suspect defenses and exploding offenses so hit the over. The spread seems spot on so see if the line shifts a half-point in either direction before you commit.
Monday, October 12
Los Angeles Chargers (1-3) at New Orleans Saints (2-2)
Line: Saints -7.5
Over/Under Total: 51
Justin Herbert has looked very good for the Chargers, who lost a tough game in Tampa Bay over the weekend when the defense gave up a 24-7 lead. New Orleans got back in the win column by toppling Detroit but their defense also gave up 29 to the Lions in a game that got too close for comfort at the end.
Michael Thomas could be back for the Saints in this one which would add to the potential for explosive offense. The over is a good bet while the half-point hook makes the Chargers the more appealing spread play since the New Orleans defense will make it hard for them to truly bury opponents for the time being.